The Rise in Divorce and Cohabitation: Is There a Link?

INCREASES IN DIVORCE and cohabitation are among themost prominent behavioral changes to affect the family over the past few decades. Both behaviors have received substantial attention, with some commentators referring to them as indicative of a breakdown in the family. Undoubtedly, the two behaviors have fundamentally altered the institution ofmarriage. The increase in divorce has changed marriage from a union intended to be life-long to a relationship that has the potential to dissolve. At the same time, cohabitation has emerged as a way for two people to live together without marriage and to avoid the potentially higher costs of divorce if the union does not last. Thus, divorce and cohabitation appear to be intrinsically linked. Current theories explaining the emergence of these behaviors tend either to explain divorce and cohabitation separately or to include them in a broader set of changing family behaviors, often referred to as the second demographic transition (Sobotka 2008; Lesthaeghe 2010; van de Kaa 2001). These theories usually point to economic shifts (Becker 1991; Oppenheimer 1997; Ruggles 2015) or social and ideational change (Giddens 1992; Lesthaeghe 2010; Perelli-Harris et al. 2010) to explain their emergence. While these theories are crucial for understanding the underlying factors leading to the behaviors, they have not specifically examined whether or how the increase in divorce may have been fundamental to the development of cohabitation. Given the dramatic increase in both divorce and cohabitation throughout much of the industrialized world, we argue that the rise in divorce could be an important catalyst for the increase in cohabitation. The relationship between divorce and cohabitation is most likely not unidirectional. Instead, they could influence each other through feedback loops (Bumpass 1990). For example, the experience of cohabitation as a less permanent relationship may lead to greater union instability in general